Sunday, July 18, 2010

WEEK 11 (29.JUNE.2010) - PROJECT LIFE CYCLE - RISK MANAGEMENT







A risk is something that may happen and if it does, will have a positive or negative impact on the project. A few points here. "That may happen" implies a probability of less then 100%. If it has a probability of 100% - in other words it will happen - it is an issue. An issue is managed differently to a risk and we will handle issue management in a later white paper. A risk must also have a probability something above 0%. It must be a chance to happen or it is not a risk.
The second thing to consider from the definition is "will have a positive or negative impact". Most people dive into the negative risks but what if something goes right?



The second thing to consider from the definition is "will have a positive or negative impact". Most people dive into the negative risks but what if something goes right?



Risks are circumstances or events that might occur. Risk have a probability of occuring and a specific impact. Risks can be known and unknown. Risks have positive or negative effects on at least on of the project objectives (scope, cost, schedule, performance).


From the work breakdown schedule activities, we will do the risk assessment. Firstly is the risk identification; analyse the project to identify the sources of rist. Next, risk analysis which is assess risks in terms of likelihood of occurance and severity of impact. Followed by risk prioritisation, which is rank or prioritise each risk in order of improtance.
Risk control is the phase which we response to a plan in controlling each risks. Risk resolution is the elimination of a risk by executing activities in the risk response plan.
Contigency planning is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs. A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact of a risk event. Having no plan may slow managerial response. Decisions made under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly.


We submitted our tutorial 3. We are happy that we managed to complete our tutorial 3 just in time. For this tutorial, based on we have learnt in class, we applying the same thing into our tutorial 3.


  • First, we must apply the WBS concept into costing. Therefore, we we have to work on the fixed cosr, variable cost, and other cost.

  • We have to perform an ROI (Return on Investment) to indicate how long is required to gain back the profit, and how much percentage of return we are making for this project.

After calculating, we are expecting to have quite a big profit margin. But this are all the early estimation. There might be unexpected cost that we may need to count in as time goes by.


For now, our ROI is set at 142%!!




Reflections :

Coming up with possible Risks and Impacts is a real pain ! We had to think out of the box for most of us as we were not exposed to such exercises. During the class activity, we did a small case-study on risk management and it was really tough. We racked our brains to come up with the possible risks and then had to rank them (we didnt know how to rank properly until Wei-Chong taught us a method !) and then we had to list down what are the contingency plans we had to do for each of the highly ranked risks. This wasnt easy but we somehow managed ! Phew.... what a week !








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